A Spatial Epidemiological Investigation of COVID-19 in the MENA Region: Modeling Incidence and Impact Factors

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Published: Dec 31, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22452/mjs.vol43no4.6
Keywords:
GIS modeling spatial modeling Multiscale GWR global models MENA region COVID-19

Main Article Content

Mustafa Shebani Aboalyem
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences, Misurata University, Misrata, LIBYA.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3125-3652
Mohd Tahir Ismail
School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM Penang, MALAYSIA.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2747-054X

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the global economy and society. World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of early July 2023, the virus has infected more than 690 million individuals and has resulted in more than 6.9 million deaths worldwide. This study aims to investigate spatial epidemiological factors of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. By employing various spatial modeling techniques, this study establishes that multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) is the best-fitted model, with the lowest residual sum of squares (11.22) and the lowest Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) value (58.41), explaining 84.3% of the variance (R2=0.843). Our study finds that population density, total vaccination doses, unemployment, and GDP per capita are critical factors associated with COVID-19 in the MENA region. These valuable insights provide policymakers and public healthcare experts with the information needed to develop targeted interventions that can mitigate risk factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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How to Cite
Mustafa Shebani Aboalyem, & Mohd Tahir Ismail. (2024). A Spatial Epidemiological Investigation of COVID-19 in the MENA Region: Modeling Incidence and Impact Factors. Malaysian Journal of Science, 43(4), 44–53. https://doi.org/10.22452/mjs.vol43no4.6
Issue
Vol 43 No 4 (2024): December 2024
Section
Original Articles
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Author Biography

Mohd Tahir Ismail, School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM Penang, MALAYSIA.

MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL is currently an Associate Professor and a Researcher with the School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia. He has published more than 150 publications in reviewed journals and proceedings (some of them are listed in ISI, Scopus, Zentralblatt, MathSciNet, and other indices). His research interests include financial time series, econometrics, categorical data analysis, and applied statistics. He is currently an Exco Member of the Malaysian Mathematical Sciences Society and an active member of other scientific professional bodies.

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