Calibrating Weather Forecasting in Indonesia: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22452/mjs.sp2019no2.9Keywords:
GOP; NWP; Spatial; Weather ForecastingAbstract
Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency Indonesia has developed weather forecasting using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but has high bias. Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) is implemented in the CCAM (conformal-cubic atmospheric model) NWP data in the eight meteorological station in Indonesia, i.e. Kemayoran, Priok, Cengkareng, Pondok Betung, Curug, Dermaga, Tangerang and Citeko stations. Results show exponential is the best distribution model for analyzing temperature in Indonesia using GOP. The location which far away from other locations/stations can have a considerable impact on the weather forecasting. Citeko station has quite different characteristic location because it is located in the higher elevation area than other stations. If Citeko station is not included in the analysis, the accuracy and precision are able to be increased twice and the results show better.
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